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16 Sep 2022

WTI pares recent losses above $84.00 despite downbeat demand concerns

  • WTI struggles to pares the biggest daily loss in a week, grinds around weekly bottom of late.
  • US dollar pullback underpins corrective bounce of the black gold.
  • Recession woes, no immediate strike in US and hawkish Fed bets favor oil bears.

WTI crude oil price edges lower during Friday’s Asian session, after falling the most in a week the previous day. That said, the black gold seesaws at around $84.50 by the press time.

The US dollar’s battle with the one-week-old resistance and a retreat in the Treasury yields seem to have tested the energy bears of late. Even so, fears of a recession keep the WTI sellers hopeful. Also likely to challenge the energy prices are the latest headlines suggesting escalation in the Sino-American tussles and pessimism in China, the world’s biggest industrial player.

That said, US Dollar Index (DXY) pare the previous day’s gains around 109.50 as the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 1.7 basis points to 3.442% after rising 1.38% the previous day.

Elsewhere, Reuters came out with the news stating that US President Joe Biden to hit China with broader curbs on US chip and tool exports. Previously, Bloomberg ran a piece suggesting that China is likely to witness harder days than it witnessed in 2020. On the same line was the news surrounding the Sino-American tussles and the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) inaction. Elsewhere, fears that the Eurozone will remain in dire conditions despite having a good stock for winter joined hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers to keep the oil traders as pessimists.

Additionally, a tentative agreement that would avert a US rail strike joined updates from the US Department of Energy (DOE) to weigh on the oil prices. The DOE mentioned that their restocking of oil reserves would likely involve deliveries after the fiscal year 2023.

To sum up, oil prices remain on the bear’s radar despite the latest rebound. That said, China’s monthly data dump including the Industrial Production, Retail Sales and housing numbers for August could offer immediate directions. Following that, preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) will be crucial for nearby directions.

Technical analysis

A clear U-turn from the 21-DMA, around $88.70 by the press time, directs WTI crude oil prices towards the monthly low near $80.95.

 

Sep 16, 2022

We see two conditions necessary for a sustainable reversal in the JPY – Societe Generale

Economics at Societe Generale raised doubts on the ability of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) intervention to reverse the USD/JPY bull run while citing two
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USD/CNY fix: 6.9305 vs. the estimate of 6.9228

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 6.9305 vs. the estimate of 6.9228. Meanwhile, the yuan is trading at th
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