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16 Sep 2022

USD/CAD renews 22-month high around 1.3250 on softer oil, firmer DXY ahead of US Michigan CSI

  • USD/CAD prints four-day uptrend to renew multi-day high, stays on the front foot of late.
  • Oil prices dropped the most in a week amid demand fears, firmer US dollar.
  • DXY cheers hawkish Fed bets, firmer US data and strong yields.
  • Second-tier US/Canada data may entertain traders ahead of next week’s key FOMC.

USD/CAD pierces 1.3250 mark as it rises to the fresh high since November 2020 during the four-day uptrend to Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Loonie pair cheers broad US dollar strength, as well as softer prices of Canada’s key export WTI crude oil.

That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) regained upside momentum on Thursday, after reversing from the weekly high the previous day, as firmer US data underpinned Treasury bond yields and hawkish Fed bets.

US Retail Sales rose 0.3% in August versus 0.0% expected and July’s revised down -0.4%. Further, NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to -1.5 in September compared to -31.3 in August and market expectation of -13. Alternatively, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index declined to -9.9 for the said month compared to 2.8 expected and 6.2 prior. Additionally, US Industrial Production slid to -0.2% in August versus a market expectation for an expansion of 0.1% and downwardly revised prior to 0.5%.

On the other hand, WTI crude oil lost more than 3.0% to poke the $84.00 threshold the previous day as demand fears join supply woes amid recession concerns. Comments from the US Department of Energy, stating that their restocking of oil reserves would likely involve deliveries after the fiscal year 2023, weighed on the black gold. On the same line was the averted labor strike in the US, at least for now.

Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed in the red and the US Treasury bond yields were firmer. Further, the market’s pricing of the Fed’s 0.75% and 1.0% rate hikes in the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also rose to 80% and 20% in that per the CME’s FedWatch Tool.

To sum up, USD/CAD bulls are likely to keep the reins ahead of Canada’s housing and sales numbers, as well as preliminary readings of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for September. On an immediate basis, China’s monthly data dump including the Industrial Production, Retail Sales and housing numbers for August could direct the traders.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond the two-month-old resistance line, now support around 1.3200, directs USD/CAD bulls towards October 2020 peak surrounding 1.3390.

 

Sep 16, 2022

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