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10 Feb 2022

EUR/USD regains some traction and retests 1.1430, focus on ECB, US CPI

  • EUR/USD trades in a positive mood near 1.1430 on Thursday.
  • Investors will focus on speeches by ECB’s De Guindos and Lane.
  • In the US docket, all the attention will be on January CPI.

The bid bias in the single currency now pushes EUR/USD back to the 1.1430 region in the second half of the week.

EUR/USD looks to ECB, US docket

EUR/USD adds to Wednesday’s advance and revisits the 1.1430 region after meeting decent support at the 5-month line in past sessions.

The cautious note around the greenback ahead of the release of US inflation figures later in the NA session initially seems to support the upside bias in the pair amidst declining US yields vs. the uptick in yields of the German 10y benchmark Bund.

No data releases in the euro docket should leave investors’ attention to the scheduled speeches by ECB’s De Guindos and Lane. In the US data space, Initial Claims and the Monthly Budget Statement are also due other than the CPI.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD appears to be decently supported in the 1.1400 neighbourhood for the time being. The now improved outlook in the pair looks bolstered by prospects of a potential interest rate hike by the ECB at some point by year end, higher German yields, elevated inflation in the region and a decent pace of the rebound in the economic activity and other key fundamentals. In the very near term, however, a positive surprise from US inflation figures (Thursday) emerges as the immediate threat to this view.

Key events in the euro area this week: Germany Final January CPI (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro area. Speculation of ECB tightening/tapering later in the year. Presidential elections in France in April. Geopolitical concerns from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is gaining 0.06% at 1.1428 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1483 (2022 high Feb.4) followed by 1.1496 (200-week SMA) and finally 1.1664 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1396 (weekly low Feb.8) would target 1.1323 (55-day SMA) en route to 1.1121 (2022 low Jan.28).

 

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