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2 Aug 2021

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD remains vulnerable below 200-day SMA

  • Silver witnessed some selling on Monday and eroded a part of last week’s recovery gains.
  • The set-up seems tilted in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for further losses.

Silver traded with a mild negative bias through the early North American session and was last seen hovering near the lower end of its intraday trading range, around the $25.40-35 region.

Looking at the technical picture, the XAG/USD, for now, seems to have stalled the recent bounce from mid-$24.00s, or the lowest level since early April stalled near the $25.80 support breakpoint. The mentioned area coincides with the very important 200-day SMA and should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.

Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart – though have recovered from lower levels – are still holding deep in the bearish territory. This, along with the emergence of some selling near a support-turned-resistance, favours bearish traders and suggests that last week's positive move might have run out of steam.

That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further depreciating move. From current levels, the $25.00 psychological mark might protect the immediate downside, which if broken will reaffirm the negative outlook and prompt aggressive technical selling around the XAG/USD.

The next relevant support is pegged near July monthly swing lows, around mid-$24.00s, below which the XAG/USD seems all set to accelerate the fall further towards the $24.00 round-figure mark. The downward trajectory could eventually drag the white metal back towards challenging YTD lows, around the $23.80-75 region.

On the flip side, any meaningful move up might continue to confront stiff resistance and remain capped near the $25.80 region (200-DMA). A sustained move beyond might trigger a short-covering move and push the XAG/USD further beyond the $26.00 mark. The momentum could further get extended towards the next relevant hurdle near the $26.35-40 supply zone.

Silver daily chart

fxsoriginal

Technical levels to watch

 

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