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14 May 2021

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs near 1.2140

  • EUR/USD pushes higher to the 1.2140 region on Friday.
  • ECB did not discuss on potential tapering, Accounts said.
  • US Retail Sales came in flat MoM in April.

Bulls remain in control of the sentiment around the single currency, with EUR/USD now navigating the area of daily highs near 1.2140.

EUR/USD stronger on dollar sell-off

EUR/USD advances for the second day in a row and looks to consolidates the recent breakout of the key 1.2100 barrier.

Indeed, the increasing selling pressure around the greenback continues to lend wings to the renewed upside in the pair. In fact, poor prints from April’s Retail Sales added to the ongoing negative mood in the buck, also exacerbated by diminishing US yields.

In the ECB space, Accounts from the latest meeting noted the Governing Council did not discuss any tapering of the bond purchase programme. A positive assessment, however, came after members acknowledged that risks to the activity are now slightly tilted to the upside. The latter could bring the tapering discussion forward, with the September event a likely candidate. Further out, the Accounts continues to see an asymmetric recovery in the region, with countries more services-dependent expected to recover at a slower pace.

Further data in the US docket saw the Industrial Production expanding at a monthly 0.7% in April and Capacity Utilization ticking higher to 74.9%.

Later in the NA session, the flash Consumer Sentiment gauge and Business Inventories will close the weekly calendar.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD regains ground lost in past sessions and advances past the 1.2100 yardstick amidst a better tone in the riskier assets. In the meantime, the sentiment around the single currency stays constructive on the back of the investors’ shift to the improved growth outlook in the Old Continent now that the vaccine campaign appears to have gained some serious pace and solid results from key fundamentals pari passu with the surging morale in the bloc.

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. German elections.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is gaining 0.48% at 1.2135 and faces the next up barrier at 1.2181 (monthly high May 11) followed by 1.2243 (monthly high Feb.25) and finally 1.2349 (2021 high Jan.6). On the downside, a break below 1985 (monthly low May 5) would target 1.1951 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1887 (61.8% Fibo of the November-January rally).

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