EUR/USD stays on course to test resistance at 1.2212/43, but with this expected to cap for now, according to the Credit Suisse analyst team.

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Support remains at 1.2058/52

“We stay biased higher for a test of resistance next at the 78.6% retracement of the Q1 fall at 1.2212, with scope for the 1.2243 February high. For now, we look for strength to ideally fail here for a fresh pullback into the broader sideways range that has been in place since early January.” 

“A direct breach of the 1.2243 February high can see strength extend to test 1.2325/50 – the 2021 high and potential downtrend from 2018 – which we would expect to prove a tough barrier once again. 

“Support moves to 1.2125 initially, then 1.2105/02, which we look to try and hold. Below can see a deeper setback to 1.2058/52, with better buying expected here.” 

“Below the 1.2058/52 region would suggest yet another false breakout, however only a move below the 1.1993/80 lows and particularly below the 200-day average at 1.1952 would turn the risks back lower again.”