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2 May 2013

Forex Flash: NZ faces clouded and milky outlook – UBS

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - In light of the recent focus on commodities and price actions, it’s worth noting that New Zealand's main export is dairy. A case can be made that the recent surge in prices is temporary – after all local drought conditions are now finally subsiding. However, “even if milk prices decline from here, there appears to be worse in store for Australia given its dependence on 'hard' commodity exports – the prices of which have been falling for several weeks.” warns Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.

Indeed, iron ore is Australia's single-biggest export, and the price upswing over the past 9 months appears to have run its course and may have already gone into reverse.

Looking beyond commodities, booming NZ house prices have already triggered hawkish rhetoric, culminating in a shift towards a slight tightening bias at last week's RBNZ policy meeting. “A watchful eye is also being kept on the accelerating post-earthquake reconstruction effort, given its potential to boost inflationary pressures more generally.” Berry adds.
May 2, 2013

Forex Flash: QE poised for expansion rather than mitigation? – Deutsche Bank

The FOMC statement last night offered few changes, however the one important sentence was added which reads "The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes".
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May 2, 2013

Forex Flash: Commodity-based face slippery slope – UBS

UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's commodity-based currencies and outline the technical positions.
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