During March the euro weakened against the US dollar moving from 1.2093 to 1.1737. Looking ahead, the common currency should recover in  the third quarter if vaccine roll-out improves, economists at MUFG Bank appraise.

Vaccine roll-outs should start to improve in Europe

“The EU Commission held a conference on 29th March to resolve slow roll-outs. Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton stated that the EU’s expanding capacity would mean production of 2-3 B doses per year and the ability to vaccinate 70% of adults by the end of the summer. An EU Commission report found supply was the primary problem suggesting better progress ahead.”

“If vaccination rates can pick up, which seems likely, and the economy begins to pick up helped by the EU fiscal program, the prospects for the euro will improve and would be a signal to us of a turn higher in EUR/USD emerging in H2 2021.”