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17 Nov 2020

GBP/USD: Bulls await BOE’s Bailey to extend Brexit based gains above 1.3200

  • GBP/USD prints three-day winning streak despite easing off-late.
  • UK Brexit Minister Frost hints Brexit trade deal “early next week”.
  • UK PM Johnson came in contact with a covid-positive, will work via Zoom.
  • Vaccine hopes firm up but fail to defy the virus woes.

GBP/USD cools down to 1.3220, up 0.18% intraday, while heading into Tuesday’s London open. The Cable refreshed the intraday high to 1.3233 in early Asia after The Sun came out with news supporting the Brexit deal between the UK and the European Union (EU). However, mixed sentiment and a lack of major/events join the cautious sentiment ahead of BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech to challenge the bulls.

Having earlier conveyed that the UK will is strict on its red lines while the Brexit talks continue, the British diplomats suggest a soon to realize trade deal with the EU. The forecasts, as conveyed by the UK Chief Brexit Negotiator David Frost, fall short of conveying no solution of the key hurdles like fisheries and level playing field. The latest developments suggest that Brexit talks are on and the Irish PM Micheál Martin also mentioned the gut instinct of the UK to have a trade deal.

Elsewhere, Reuters came out with the news suggesting UK PM Boris Johnson’s contact with a coronavirus (COVID-19) positive, as well as sound health conditions afterward. The news also conveys the Tory leaders’ readiness to work via Zoom to maintain the social distancing norms intact for the next two weeks.

Trading sentiment struggles to keep Monday’s optimism as vaccine hopes triggered by Moderna fails to defy the fears of a second national lockdown in the US even if Johnson and Johnson, as well as Pfizer, joins the league of the positive news/updates.

That said, GBP/USD traders may keep 1.3200 while waiting for Bailey’s repetition of the hawkish statements. However, a Reuters poll suggests that the coronavirus is a bigger risk to the U.S. economy than a prolonged dispute over the presidential election result, which in turn can weigh on the Sterling. After the comments from the BOE’s Bailey, US Retail Sales for October will be closely watched for fresh impulse while the risk catalysts can keep the driver’s seat.

Technical analysis

A two-week-old support line, currently near 1.3160, restricts the short-term downside of GBP/USD ahead of 1.3080/75 rest-area. Meanwhile, bullish MACD and sustained trading above 1.3100 favor buyers targeting to refresh the monthly top near 1.3315.

 

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