S&P 500, 10-year US Treasury yields at risk on severely contested election – BofA

The analysts at Bank of America Global Research offer their take on the likely outcomes of the US Presidential election and their impact on the US equities and Treasury yields.

Key quotes

A “landslide victory for either Trump or Biden and rapid election conclusion would likely be welcomed by markets while a severely contested election could see risk-off and drive 10-year rates materially lower” 

“If Trump leads on Election Day with a large backlog of absentee and mail-in ballots, stocks could see more volatility until more results come in” 

Citing 2000, “the S&P 500 sold off 5% before the Supreme Court called the election for George W. Bush on December 12.”