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19 Oct 2020

EUR/USD: Bearish while below key trendline around 1.1840 – Rabobank

Having hit a high in the 1.2011 area in early September, EUR/USD subsequently moved into a lower trading band and the pair has been bearish since then. Economists at Rabobank forecast EUR/USD at 1.17 on a one-month view followed by 1.16 on a three-month view. 

Key quotes

“From a technical perspective, the price action in EUR/USD has been bearish since September when a break below the key trendline occurred. Technicals also suggest that a strong rebound above this trendline – currently at around 1.1840 – is required to undermine the notion of the wave V below the September 25 low at 1.1612 unfolding in the coming weeks. In our view, fundamentals are also lining up to take EUR/USD towards 1.16 on a three-month view.”

“The second wave of COVID-19 is undermining forecasts regarding the strength of the region’s economic recovery. Already there are delays about the distribution of the EU’s Recovery Fund and any fresh demands for fiscal funds could trigger fresh debates about fiscal support. Against this backdrop, various ECB officials have been keen to air their dovish outlooks which has been preparing the market for more monetary policy action in the coming months.”

 

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