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19 Oct 2020

EUR/USD looks firmer and approaches 1.1800

  • EUR/USD extends the upside to the boundaries of 1.1800.
  • Market chatter on US stimulus package gives legs to the pair.
  • Fed’s Powell participates in a discussion panel on digital currencies.

The European currency and its risk-associated peers trade on a better mood and pushes EUR/USD to the proximity of the 1.18 barrier.

EUR/USD underpinned by risk appetite

EUR/USD has managed to test the area of 1.1790, an interim hurdle where sits the 55-day SMA, although the upside momentum lost some vigour on Monday.

In the meantime, renewed hopes of another package of US fiscal stimulus have been sustaining the improved sentiment in the risk complex, pushing high-beta currencies, stocks and yields higher at the beginning of the week.

On another front, ECB Chief C.Lagarde said earlier in the session that climate change is expected to affect monetary policy in the future, while VP L. De Guindos said the economic recovery seems to be losing some traction.

Nothing relevant from Powell’s discussion on digital currencies other than the Fed has not made a decision on the issue. Later in the week, the release of advanced PMIs in the region is forecasted to grab all the attention.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD extends the bounce off last week’s lows in the 1.1690/85 band. The outlook on EUR/USD still remains constructive, however, and bearish moves are deemed as corrective only. Further out, the positive bias in the euro remains underpinned by auspicious results from domestic fundamentals (despite momentum appears somewhat mitigated in several regions), the so far cautious stance from the ECB and the solid position of the EMU’s current account.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.58% at 1.1781 and a breakout of 1.1830 (monthly high Oct.9) would target 1.1917 (high Sep.10) en route to 1.1965 (monthly high Aug.18). On the other hand, the next support is located at 1.1688 (monthly low Ot.15) followed by 1.1612 (monthly low Sep.25) and finally 1.1495 (monthly high Mar.9).

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