Confirming you are not from the U.S. or the Philippines

By giving this statement, I explicitly declare and confirm that:
  • I am not a U.S. citizen or resident
  • I am not a resident of the Philippines
  • I do not directly or indirectly own more than 10% of shares/voting rights/interest of the U.S. residents and/or do not control U.S. citizens or residents by other means
  • I am not under the direct or indirect ownership of more than 10% of shares/voting rights/interest and/or under the control of U.S. citizen or resident exercised by other means
  • I am not affiliated with U.S. citizens or residents in terms of Section 1504(a) of FATCA
  • I am aware of my liability for making a false declaration.
For the purposes of this statement, all U.S. dependent countries and territories are equalled to the main territory of the USA. I accept full responsibility for the accuracy of this declaration and commit to personally address and resolve any claims or issues that may arise from a breach of this statement.
Cancel Confirm
We are dedicated to your privacy and the security of your personal information. We only collect emails to provide special offers and important information about our products and services. By submitting your email address, you agree to receive such letters from us. If you want to unsubscribe or have any questions or concerns, write to our Customer Support.
Confirm
Octa trading broker Sign up Log in
Octa trading broker
Open trading account
Trading news
Back
10 Sep 2020

EUR/USD: Focus on ECB, but don't expect fireworks

  • EUR/USD trades near 1.1820 ahead of the ECB rate decision. 
  • Implied volatility metrics suggest traders don't expect ECB to fuel big moves. 
  • Negative Eurozone inflation has fueled dovish ECB expectations. 

According to a widely-tracked options market metric, Thursday's European Central Bank rate decision is unlikely to yield big moves in EUR/USD. 

Rangebound implied volatility 

EUR/USD's ATM volatility on one-month options, which measures the calculated or implied mid-rate volatility for an at-the-money (ATM) option,   remains trapped in a multi-week range of 6.85-8.28. Further, the weekly volatility gauge is stuck in the range of 7.00 to 8.6. 

Implied volatility represents markets' expectations of how volatile an asset would be over a specific period. In other words, traders aren't expecting EUR/USD to chart big moves on the ECB event. 

The central bank is widely expected to keep policy tools unchanged. As such, the focus will be on the central bank's take on the pace of the economic recovery, negative inflation, economic forecasts, and the deflationary impact of the euro's 5% quarter-to-date rise against the US dollar. 

Markets believe President Lagarde will jawbone the currency, given the Eurozone inflation has turned negative for the first time since 2016. As such, there is plenty of scope for disappointment and an uptick in EUR/USD. The pair is currently trading at 1.1820, having defended a four-month rising trendline on Wednesday. 

Also read: EUR/USD options: Bull bias weakens ahead of ECB

Technical levels

 

 

Sep 10, 2020

GBP/USD: Will chatters over Brexit Internal Market Bill supersede ECB?

GBP/USD attempts recovery from intraday low of 1.2976 to 1.2997 while heading into Thursday’s London open. The cable bounced off the lowest since late
Read more Previous
Sep 10, 2020

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Key SMAs probe break of weekly support line above 0.9100

USD/CHF drops to 0.9111, down 0.15% on a day, during the pre-European session on Thursday. Although the downside break of an ascending trend line from
Read more Next