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27 Jul 2020

EUR/USD off highs beyond 1.1700 ahead of key data

  • EUR/USD moved and receded from fresh peaks beyond 1.1700.
  • German IFO survey next of relevance in the docket on Monday.
  • US Durable Goods Orders, Dallas Fed gauge on tap across the pond.

The bullish bias around the European currency remains well and sound for yet another session on Monday, this time lifting EUR/USD to fresh tops above 1.17 the figure.

EUR/USD boosted by dollar weakness, looks to data

EUR/USD has started its sixth consecutive week with gains on Monday, reaching levels last seen in September 2018 beyond the 1.17 mark.

As usual, the persistent selling bias surrounding the dollar has allowed EUR/USD to climb further north of the 1.17 level during early trade, always helped by the solid momentum in the risk-associated universe.

Investors’ optimism over the unabated recovery in economies across the world continues to support the upbeat sentiment in the riskier assets. The move has met extra support in the idea that a vaccine against the coronavirus could see the light in the next six months, all amidst the unremitting progress of the pandemic in the US and fresh outbreaks in Europe, where fears of a second wave of contagion have started to re-emerge.

Data wise in Euroland, the key German IFO survey is due later seconded by the ECB’s M3 Money Supply and Private Sector Loans. In the US calendar, June’s Durable Goods Orders will take centre stage followed by the Dallas Fed index.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD advanced to levels last seen in September 2018 above 1.1700 earlier on Monday, confirming once again the solid momentum around both the single currency and the rest of its risky peers. The sharp move up, while largely triggered by dollar-selling, has found extra sustain in auspicious results from the domestic docket, in turn supporting further the view of a strong economic recovery following the coronavirus fallout. Also lending wings to the momentum around the euro, the recently clinched deal on the European Recovery Fund helped putting political fears within the region to rest (for now), while the solid position of the current account in the region adds to the rally.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.40% at 1.1700 and a breakout of 1.1725 (2020 high Jul.27) would target 1.1815 (monthly high Sep.24 2018) en route to 1.1852 (monthly high Jun.14 2018). On the downside, the next support aligns at 1.1495 (monthly high Mar.9) seconded by 1.1448 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1422 (monthly high Jun.10).

 

Jul 27, 2020

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Further decline in USD/JPY could see the 105.00 area revisited in the next weeks, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view:
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