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7 May 2020

WTI Price Analysis: 50-day average applies brakes to price rally

  • WTI's upside is being capped by the 50-day average. 
  • The 50-hour average is restricting the downside in black gold. 
  • A bull flag has been formed on the hourly chart. 

West Texas Intermediate's recovery rally looks to have stalled, as the black gold has failed twice in the last 24 hours to keep gains above the 50-day average hurdle.

At press time, the front-month contract is trading at $24.22, having hit a high of the 50-day average of $24.56 in early Asia. 

Oil fell by 2% on Wednesday after facing rejection above the crucial average hurdle, snapping a five-day winning streak, which was the longest stretch of daily gains since December 2019. 

While the 50-day average is capping upside, the downside is being restricted by the 50-hour average since Wednesday's American trading hours. As of writing, the 50-hour average is located at $23.67. 

If the 50-hour average fuels a price bounce above $25.00, a bull flag breakout would be confirmed on the hourly chart. That would create room for a rally to $33 (target as per the measured move method). 

Meanwhile, acceptance under the 50-hour average will likely yield a deeper pullback to $22.58 horizontal support on the hourly chart), under which the major support is located at $20.48 (lower end of the flag). 

Daily chart

Hourly chart

Trend: Neutral

Technical levels

 

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