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10 Mar 2020

Oil: Glimmer of hope – TDS

Crude oil prices are settling in the low $30/bbl range, with the risk-on tone helping to provide a bid on the day. Strategists at TD Securities take a look at the future events surrounding the black gold.

Key quotes

“The price war is taking the next step with Saudi Arabia announcing a some 2.6m bpd increase in production for April, to 12.3m bpd, while Russian Energy Minister Novak is set to meet with oil bosses today to discuss next steps, where he notes they have capacity to increase production by up to 500k bpd in fairly short order.” 

“One glimmer of hope were the comments that Russia is not closing the door on future cooperation with OPEC, meanwhile President Trump calling the Saudi Prince in relation to the price war has increased speculation that the President could use his political influence in Saudi Arabia to support the market should the US industry feel major pain.”

“In terms of CTAs, we do not expect any material moves as funds were already positioned extremely short in the complex, and elevated volatility will keep excess positioning in check for now.”

 

Mar 10, 2020

UK: Uncertainty weighing on the pound – Handelsbanken

Sterling has weakened substantially in the past few days and is currently trading around 0.87 versus the euro. Kiran Sakaria, a Strategist at Handelsb
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Mar 10, 2020

EUR: Just neutral – Handelsbanken

Recently, there has been a link between the EUR/SEK and the dollar. After the Fed’s rate cut which could be followed by other central banks, strategis
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