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28 Feb 2020

When is the Canadian GDP report and how could it affect USD/CAD?

Canadian GDP overview

Friday's economic docket highlights the release of monthly Canadian GDP growth figures for January, scheduled to be published at 13:30 GMT. Statistics Canada will also release the annualized quarterly growth rate, making this event more significant than the ones including only monthly data. Consensus estimates point to yet another modest expansion of 0.1% during the reported month, while the growth is forecasted to have decelerated sharply to 0.3% annualized rate during the fourth quarter of 2019, marking a further deceleration from 3.7% growth recorded in the second quarter and 1.3% in July-September quarter.

How could it affect USD/CAD?

The recent bullish momentum to has been exclusively sponsored by the ongoing slump in crude oil prices, led by fears that the outbreak of the deadly coronavirus will further dent the global demand. The commodity-linked currency – the loonie is unlikely to gain any meaningful respite unless the numbers beat market expectations by a big margin.

Given that the pair has rallied over 200 pips since the beginning of this week, a surprisingly stronger reading might prompt some aggressive long-unwinding trade and drag the USD/CAD pair back towards the previous YTD tops resistance, now turned support near the 1.3330 region. Conversely, a disappointing print might provide some additional boost to the ongoing strong upward trajectory. However, slightly overbought conditions might keep a lid near the key 1.3500 psychological mark, at least for the time being.

Key Notes

Canada: GDP to increase below the market consensus – TDS

USD/CAD Analysis: Bullish sentiment

USD/CAD: The loonie’s to depreciate for another few months – NBF

About the Canadian GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Canada. The GDP is considered a broad measure of Canadian economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the CAD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CAD.

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