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24 Feb 2020

USD/CAD: Buyers cheer WTI weakness, coronavirus outbreak above 1.3250

  • USD/CAD fails to hold onto the previous day’s losses.
  • The coronavirus-led risk aversion continues to spread into commodities while helping the US dollar to recover Friday’s losses.
  • The second-tier US/Canadian data will be watched to reconfirm the recently soft economics.

USD/CAD rises to 1.3265, up 0.36%, during the early Monday’s trading session. In doing so, the pair repeats its recent pattern of alternating gains with losses amid fears of coronavirus spread outside China.

Not only South Korea’s raising of the national threat level to “red alert” but a speedy run-up in Italy’s coronavirus cases from three on Friday to 140 (as per the latest Bloomberg piece) also portray the outbreak of Chinese disease.

While cases outside Beijing are on a spike, the mainland figures are less disturbing whereas the news that five provinces lower emergency levels inside China seem to have stopped further risk aversion off-late.

Even so, S&P 500 Futures stay -1.34% to 3,294 by the time of writing while stocks in Asia also flash red signals by the press time.

Also contributing to the pair’s upside is WTI oil. The black gold extended Friday’s losses amid concerns that coronavirus will have a serious impact on the global energy demand. In doing so, oil prices ignored weekend headlines signaling geopolitical tension emanating from Israel.

Looking forward, the US activity numbers from Chicago and Dallas Fed will be closely watched to reconfirm Friday’s soft statistics concerning the world’s largest economy. Additionally, Canada’s December month Wholesale Sales, expected +0.8% versus -1.2% prior, could offer further direction to the pair.

Technical Analysis

Unless marking a daily close below 200-day SMA level of 1.3215, the quote is less likely to forget challenging the early-month high near 1.3400.

 

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