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21 Feb 2020

USD/INR stays below 72.00 as Indian markets are off amid broad risk aversion

  • USD/INR pulls back from a six-week high.
  • News of no immediate US-India trade deal fails to get much attention amid coronavirus fears.
  • US PMIs will be the key while headlines concerning the epidemic can keep the driver’s seat.

USD/INR weakens to 71.84 ahead of the European session on Friday. The cross recently surged to the fresh six-week high on news that the US-India deal is unclear. However, off at the Indian burses due to Maha Shivratri as well as a pullback in the US dollar seems to favor the pair’s latest weakness.

Even so, coronavirus continues to dampen the broad trade sentiment as not only a rise in cases outside Chinese borders but warnings from Japan and Germany threaten the market players. The BOJ Governor and Japanese Finance Minister both sounded a bit worried due to the coronavirus after Japan’s downbeat economic performance off-late. On the other hand, Germany’s monthly Finance Ministry report also cited coronavirus as the risk to global trade.

Furthermore, the US issued travel warnings whereas South Korea and Singapore have also shown readiness to counter the contagion after fearsome numbers.

Additionally, China’s Commerce Ministry was not behind while staying ready to take measures needed to counter the impact of the coronavirus.

That said, the US 10-year treasury yields lose nearly three basis points to revisit the early-month low surrounding 1.50%.

Investors will now focus on the coronavirus headlines ahead of the US activity numbers and Existing Home Sales. Concerning this, TD Securities said, “The preliminary Markit PMIs for Feb will lead the US data calendar on Friday, as market participants continue to look for any signs of concern related to the novel coronavirus. The surveys released so far have not only failed to flag any issues but have also surprised to the upside. Separately, we look for existing home sales to decline 2.3% m/m in Jan following the firm 3.6% rise registered in Dec. Lastly, a number of Fed officials will be participating in the Chicago Booth's Monetary Policy Forum that is scheduled to start at 10:15 am NY time. Key participants include Fed voters Clarida, Brainard and Mester, and the ECB's Philip Lane.”

Technical Analysis

January 05 top near 72.20 is likely an immediate upside barrier whereas a downside break of 50% Fibonacci retracement level of December 2019 to January 2020 upside, at 71.42, can limit immediate declines.

 

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