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19 Feb 2020

When is Canadian CPI report and how could it affect USD/CAD?

Canadian CPI Overview

Wednesday's economic docket highlights the key release of the latest Canadian consumer inflation figures for January, scheduled to be published at 13:30 GMT. The headline CPI is anticipated to have edged higher by 0.2% during the reported month as compared to a flat reading fall recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, the yearly rate and the BoC's core CPI are also anticipated to tick higher to 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively.

How could it affect USD/CAD?

Ahead of the important releases, the USD/CAD pair was seen struggling below mid-1.3200s, or near three-week lows, albeit has managed to hold its neck above the very important 200-day SMA. A stronger reading might be enough to provide an additional boost to the Canadian dollar and prompt some selling, forcing the major to extend the recent downward trajectory. The pair might then turn vulnerable to break below the 1.3200 round-figure mark and head towards testing its next major support near the 1.3170-60 horizontal zone.

Conversely, a softer reading might prompt some intraday short-covering move and lift the pair back towards the 1.3270-80 heavy supply zone. Some follow-through buying will suggest the end of the recent corrective slide from four-month tops and set the stage for the resumption of the pair's prior well-established bullish trend.

Meanwhile, the market reaction to mostly inline readings is likely to remain limited as investors might refrain from placing any aggressive bets, rather prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the latest FOMC meeting minutes, due for release later during the US trading session.

Key Notes

   •  Canada: CPI will keep CAD on the defensive – TDS

   •  USD/CAD Intraday: the downside prevails

   •  USD/CAD slides to session low, around 1.3230; erases Tuesday’s positive move

About BoC's Core CPI

Consumer Price Index Core is released by the Bank of Canada. “Core” CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. These volatile core 8 are considered as the key indicator for inflation in Canada. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude by the BoC, and that is said to be positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

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