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19 Feb 2020

USD/INR slips from monthly top near 71.80 despite challenges at India

  • USD/INR respected broad risk reset while stepping back from a three-week high.
  • US President Trump signals deal with India, savings rate at home drops to a 15-year low.
  • China’s coronavirus cases show a mixed reaction, rating giants keep flashing red signals.
  • An absence of data at home will keep external catalysts in focus.

USD/INR declines to 71.52 as the Indian markets open for trading on Wednesday. The pair’s latest surge to 71.83 repeated the habit of being short-lived amid risk reset in Asia. However, broad challenges to the Indian economy remain standby.

With the World Health Organization’s (WHO) urge to keep calm over China’s coronavirus death toll, which crossed 2,000 mark as of February 20, joined optimism spread by Chinese President Xi Jinping. The diplomat ruled out Moody’s downbeat growth forecast while expecting the GDP growth to meet the mark in 2020 despite coronavirus threats.

Also on the positive side could be US President Donald Trump’s comments saying, “We will have a really big trade deal with India, maybe after November US election.”

Even so, Moody’s raises doubts on the Asian credit conditions while also downgrading Indian growth forecasts to 5.4% versus 6.6% prior. Furthermore, data from the Central Statistical Organisation shows that the Indian gross savings slump 30.1%, the lowest since 2003/04.

While portraying the market sentiment, the US 10-year treasury yields stay mildly positive to 1.566% with the risk recovery in Asia. It’s worth mentioning that risk reversals suggest the options market is most bullish on the USD/INR pair in over four months. 

Given the absence of major data/events at home, traders will keep eyes on the headlines from China as well as the US statistics for near-term direction.

Technical Analysis

A gradual higher high formation poses a serious challenge to 72.00 round-figure. Though 72.2 and January month high near 72.60 stay as a tough nut to crack for the buyers. On the downside, a five-week-old rising trend line near 71.25 acts as the key support.

 

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