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7 Feb 2020

When is the RBA’s Lowe’s speech, monetary policy statement and how could they affect AUD/USD?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe will testify before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics at 22:30 GMT on Thursday, early Friday for Asia. The event will be followed by the RBA’s quarterly monetary policy statement, up for publishing at 00:30 GMT on Friday. Considering the recently hawkish pause by the RBA, coupled with the fears of coronavirus and mixed data, it will be the key for the AUD/USD pair traders to watch as to how the Aussie central bank perceives the data/event flow.

Analysts at TD Securities said, “Of most interest will be the magnitude of GDP downgrades (if any) and if the Bank continues to believe the 'gentle turning point' thesis.”

How could the events affect AUD/USD?

While the RBA”s Lowe is less likely to diverge from his recently upbeat comments, a cautious optimism could be witnessed in the policymaker’s tone. As regards to the RBA statement, it is expected that the central bank will keep the doors open for further monetary policy easing, rate cuts, if needed. However, any signals to inflation/GDP worry will weigh on the AUD/USD pair. In doing so, October 2019 low near 0.6670 will be the key to watch.

On the contrary, upbeat announcements might not refrain to push the pair towards a downward sloping trend line since the year’s start and 100-day SMA, around 0.6790 and 0.6830 respectively.

Key Notes

AUD/USD: Under pressure ahead of RBA’s Lowe’s speech, monetary policy statement

AUD/USD Forecast: Under pressure but holding above 0.6700

About RBA's Governor Lowe speech

Philip Lowe replaced Glenn Stevens as governor of Australia’s central bank. Lowe was the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, a position he held since February 2012. Governor Philip Lowe will testify before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics.

About RBA Monetary Policy Statement

The RBA Monetary Policy Statement released by the Reserve bank of Australia reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. It is considered as a clear guide to the future RBA interest rate policy. Any changes in this report affect the AUD volatility. If the RBA statement shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a dovish outlook is seen as negative (or bearish).

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