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6 Feb 2020

When are the German Factory Orders and how could they affect EUR/USD?

German Factory Orders overview

German factory orders are forecasted to have risen by 0.6% month-on-month in December, having dropped by 1.3% in November. The annualized figure is expected to come in at -6% compared to the previous month's -6.5%. The data will be released at 07:00 GMT. 

Mixed lead indicators

IHS Markit’s German Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of the economy, fell to 43.7 in December from November’s five-month high of 44.1, signaling a deeper contraction. 

However, the forward-looking survey measures for new orders and output expectations had improved. 

So, Factory Orders may have rebounded in December, as expected by economists. 

Impact on EUR

EUR/USD found acceptance under 1.10 on Wednesday – it's first below-1.10 close since October. The psychological support was breached with a red marubozu candle, which represents strong bearish sentiment. 

The pair, therefore, is on the defensive and could suffer a deeper drop to 1.0941 (Oct. 8 low) on weaker-than-expected German data. 

A big beat on expectations could put a strong bid under the single currency, although the bearish outlook would be invalidated only if the spot manages to close above Wednesday's high of 1.1048. 

At press time, EUR/USD is trading just below 1.10.

Technical levels

 

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