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31 Jan 2020

NZD/USD: Risk-off recalls nine-week bottom, sub-0.6500 zone, ahead of China data

  • NZD/USD drops to a two-month low as the market’s stay away from commodity-linked currencies.
  • New Zealand’s recently strong linkages to China offered heavy losses due to coronavirus fears, ANZ-Roy Morgan mostly ignored.
  • WHO eased some of the pain but China’s official PMIs will be the keys to watch.

NZD/USD fails to ignore global fears of China’s coronavirus outbreak as it remains below 0.6500, currently at 0.6490, by the press time of early Friday morning in Asia. The kiwi pair slumped to the nine-week low before a few hours as the World Health Organization (WHO) termed the Chinese virus outbreak as an international emergency.

A mild pullback, mainly due to no change in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index for January, at 123.00, couldn’t defy overall risk-off sentiment as global leaders seem to ignore WHO’s a recommendation to not put any restrictions on trade and travel.

Other than broad risk-off, which undoubtedly exerted major downside pressure on the kiwi pair, the recent increase in New Zealand exports to China is also another reason that has weighed on the prices. New Zealand’s dairy and meat products have found a new home in China with more than 20% increase in imports of such items recently.

Also contributing to the pair’s drop to multi-week low was the US Q4 GDP data that matched market calls of reprinting 2.1% growth despite soft personal consumption data.

Moving on, China’s NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI for January will be the keys to watch as they will give first impressions of how the epidemic has affected the dragon nation. The headline Manufacturing PMI is likely to near 50.00 mark that differentiates contraction in activities from 50.2 prior whereas the Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 53.5.

Traders will also concentrate on the US economic calendar during the later part of the day for intermediate impact. Though, nothing will dim prospects of coronavirus headlines to move the markets.

Technical Analysis

A sustained break of 200-day SMA drags the NZD/USD pair towards 0.6470/65 support area including 100-day SM and November month high.

 

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