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11 Oct 2019

Eurozone: Growing risks of recession – Westpac

Tim Riddell, analyst at Westpac, suggests that Eurozone activity data and surveys continue to signal growing risks of recession and any inflation pressures appear to the downside.

Key Quotes

“This week, ECB officials have affirmed their recent stimulus package, despite numerous critics stating that ECB’s NIRP is distorting the economy and financial markets while impairing the struggling financial sector.”

“The departure of Draghi next month is unlikely to see any change in monetary policy, but Lagarde’s arrival could increase the urgency of the ECB’s much repeated pleas for both fiscal and structural support.”

“In the interim, Eurozone nations are compiling budget proposals for submission to the EC at the end of this month so fiscal relaxation is unlikely. Germany may be facing a recession and has a relatively favourable fiscal stance, but its finance ministry is not showing any sign of fiscal leniency. Even their recent carbon reduction initiatives are fiscally neutral.”

“Despite recent data weakness, Westpac’s Data Pulse has rebounded and the Surprise Index is holding. Although this does not imply a EUR turn, it may allow for interim bounces before ECB accommodation pressures trigger redefinition of a lower trading range.”

Oct 11, 2019

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: The 55-day SMA at 98.36 expected to hold the downside

Dollar Index Spot Overview Today last price 98.61 Today Daily Change 23 Today Daily Change % -0.11 Today daily open 98.72 Trends Daily SMA20 98.8 Dai
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Oct 11, 2019

US: Modest drop in Consumer Sentiment likely in October – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities point out that the market expects University of Michigan’s consumer report to show that sentiment dropped modestly in Octobe
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