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9 Oct 2019

NZD/USD: Bears in charge below key technical resistances

  • NZD/USD fell from 0.6325 to 0.6295 overnight on various negative trade headlines.
  • The  21-DMA is a resistance while bears are embarking on a test below the lowest levels since 2015.

NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6301 in a tight range in Asia which looks set to be a relatively quiet session as overnight markets did the leg work with respect to the key driver being the trade war sentiment. 

NZD/USD fell from 0.6325 to 0.6295 overnight on various negative trade headlines which stripped out any positive sentiment left with respect to this week's trade meetings between the US and Chinese officials. One headline reported, in the Global Times, suggests that the trade talks will be terminated a day earlier. In others, the US State Department had announced the following: 

 "Visa restrictions on Chinese government and Communist Party officials who are believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, the detention or abuse of Uighurs, Kazakhs, or other members of Muslim minority groups in Xinjiang, China.”

Central banks in focus

Meanwhile, with respect to central banks, there was little solace in Federal reserve Powell's statement  that the Fed will start expanding its balance sheet "soon." Powell said, in addition, which dampened the expectations, that this growth will be for "reserve management purposes" and "should in no way be confused with the large scale asset purchase programs that we deployed after the financial crisis.".


With respect to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, "The market pricing for RBNZ is for 29bp of easing on 13 November, with a terminal rate of 0.46%," analysts at Westpac explained. 

NZD/USD levels

Bears are in charge on a technical basis, with the  21-DMA acting as a resistance. Bears are embarking on a test below the lowest levels since 2015 following a run below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the GFC lows in 2009 to recovery double top highs in 2011 and 2014.

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