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9 Oct 2019

Fed's Kashkari: Inverted yield curve is a concerning sign - RTRS

Federal Reserve's Kashkari has said that the single best indicator of recessions is the inverted yield curve.

More from Kashkari:

The yield curve inverts because investors are nervous about future growth.
The inverted yield curve is a concerning sign; I take the signal seriously.
The US consumer is doing well, but businesses are reducing investments.
If Fed were to grow balance sheet again, it would be aimed at smoothing operation of financial system.

FX implications:

The markets are weighing the various negative inputs and the US Dollar is picking up a safe haven bid as the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry basket. The markets have actually priced in around "15bp of easing at the 31 October meeting and a terminal rate of 0.94% (vs 1.88% currently)," according to analysts at Westpac.

Oct 9, 2019

GBP/USD technical analysis: Cable enters the Asian session below the 1.2230 level

Brexit: Senior No10 aides preparing legal advice to ensure Boris can deliver Brexit on October 31 - The Sun

The Sun has reported that PM Johnson is planning to tell the Queen she cannot sack him as PM even if he loses a no-confidence vote and MPs pick a care