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28 Aug 2019

EUR/SEK around multi-day highs near 10.76

  • EUR/SEK records tops just below 10.76 and recedes afterwards.
  • Sweden Retail Sales expanded 0.4% MoM in July.
  • The Riksbank will meet on September 4.

The Swedish Krona has resumed the downside on Wednesday and it has lifted EUR/SEK to new multi-day highs in the boundaries of 10.76.

EUR/SEK centered on trade, ECB, data

In spite of today’s moderate recovery, the cross remains well within the congestion pattern following the rejection from monthly peaks in the area just shy of 10.84 (August 7).

SEK remains vigilant on the US-China trade developments and its impact on the prospects for global growth. The issue is vital for a small and open economy like the Scandinavian one.

Earlier in the day, Sweden Retail Sales expanded at a monthly 0.4% during July and 4.,3% over the last twelve months. Yesterday, Producer Prices gained 0.3% MoM in July and 2.0% from a year earlier. Further data saw the trade surplus widening to SEK 6.7 billion during the same period and the Household Lending Growth expanding 4.9% on a year to July.

What to look for around SEK

The Riksbank will meet again on September 4 and the probability of a rate hike has been diminishing as of late in tandem with increasing effervescence on the trade front and the broad-based shift from major central banks to a looser stance on monetary policy. In addition, domestic data keep showing the economy stays in good shape although these results look insufficient to motivate the Riksbank to tighten further its stance.

EUR/SEK levels to consider

As of writing the cross is gaining 0.37% at 10.7587 and a breakout of 10.7791 (high Aug.20) would open the door to 10.8373 (high Aug.7) and finally 10.8498 (2019 high May 13). On the downside, the next support emerges at 10.6420 (low Aug.20) seconded by 10.6019 (low Aug.14) and finally 10.5038 (200-day SMA).

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