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26 Jul 2019

USD/ARS will be at 48 by December - BBVA

Analysts at BBVA Research expect Argentinean GDP to fall 1.2% in 2019, and see it growing quarterly form 2Q-19 due to the recovery of agricultural campaign and the reduction of FX market tensions. They see the US Dollar rising to 48 (USD/ARS) by year-end. 

Key Quotes: 

“The polarization of the political scene is increasing. The announcements of moderate candidates in the two tickets with "real" chances of winning the elections were well received by the markets. Our baseline scenario assumes that the current economic policies will continue after the elections.”

“The FX market stability achieved with the new FX reference zone scheme and the maintenance of monetary tightening moderated inflation expectations. We maintain the inflation rate forecast of 40% for 2019 and 30% for 2020.”

“The exchange rate for December 2019 will be at ARS/USD 48, reaching ARS/USD 60 by the end of 2020 which will prevent an excessive loss of competitiveness."

"There is evidence of a strong adjustment in the current account that will go from -5.1% of GDP (2018) to -2.3% of GDP this year.”

“The trade surplus and a lower deficit in Tourism will be offset by the impact of interest payments (4% of GDP) due to higher indebtedness. The situation will remain almost unchanged in 2020.”

Jul 26, 2019

Bank of Japan: Not major changes to the current stance for the foreseeable future - Wells Fargo

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan will have its policy meeting. Analysts at Wells Fargo expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged and they assume no
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Jul 26, 2019

USD/JPY steadies above 108.50, adds 100 pips for the week

The USD/JPY pair showed some wild swings during the early trading hours of the American session but didn't make a consistent-enough move in either dir
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