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26 Jul 2019

USD/TRY testing multi-day lows near 5.6500

  • USD/TRY extends the downside to the 5.6500 region.
  • The CBRT cut the One-Week Repo Rate to 19.75% on Thursday.
  • President R.T.Erdogan said further cuts remain on the table.

The Turkish Lira continues to appreciate vs. the greenback in the second half of the week and is now dragging USD/TRY to fresh 4-day lows in the 5.65 region.

USD/TRY offered post-CBRT

TRY stays firm despite the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) reduced the key One-Week Repo Rate by 425 bps at its meeting yesterday, taking it to 19.75% from 24.0%. The central bank noted that economic activity kept improving in tandem with the better outlook from exports and tourism revenues.

The Lira maintained the firm fashion today after President Erdogan advocated for further rate cuts in the near term future, always sustained by his conviction that lower rates will bring lower inflation (?).

In the meantime, the demand for TRY and other EM FX looks underpinned by prospects of rate cuts by the Fed next week and despite the rally in the greenback stays unabated for the time being.

In the calendar, and other than the CBRT event, Turkey Capacity Utilization ticked lower to 76.2% during July and Manufacturing Confidence dropped to 98.3 during the same period (from 10.2). Earlier in the week, Consumer Confidence eased to 56.5 for the current month.

Later today, advanced US Q2 GDP figures will keep the attention on the buck ahead of next week’s critical FOMC meeting.

USD/TRY key levels

At the moment the pair is losing 0.45% at 5.6539 and faces the next support at 5.5971 (low Jul.19) followed by 5.5741 (monthly low Jul.4) and then 5.5619 (200-day SMA). On the flip side, a surpass of 5.7727 (high Jul.25) would expose 5.7849 (monthly high Jul.8) and finally 5.8138 (55-day SMA).

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