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20 May 2014
USD/CAD positioned for the downside? - TD Securities
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Shaun Osbourne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities noted that USD/CAD is suffering from a dearth of data and conviction to drive the markets either back through the low 1.09 area on the topside or below the low 1.08s on the downside.
Key Quotes
"Either of which is needed to give this market a stronger sense of direction. With only second tier data out in Canada today for North America (we are onside with the consensus and expect a 0.4% gain in March wholesale trade), it may be another day of waiting and range trading for USD/CAD."
"While we think USD/CAD is poised to range trade a little longer, we also think that the technical bar to a renewed USD rally is not that high. The consolidation range noted above really refers to the developing (and, at this stage, ‘potential’ only) bull wedge on the daily chart."
"The USD has worked off a lot of the short-term overbought status that had accumulated through April and last week’s inside range week suggests that downside impetus has weakened. Pressure is building for a break out of the range, one-way or the other. A topside break out is favoured by the shape of the formation and the broader trend higher in USD/CAD."
"The range ceiling at 1.0901 on the daily chart is not that far away, though we rather think that markets will look for a push through the mid-month high at 1.0925 as the cue to add or rebuild longs. Support is 1.0855 and 1.0818."
Key Quotes
"Either of which is needed to give this market a stronger sense of direction. With only second tier data out in Canada today for North America (we are onside with the consensus and expect a 0.4% gain in March wholesale trade), it may be another day of waiting and range trading for USD/CAD."
"While we think USD/CAD is poised to range trade a little longer, we also think that the technical bar to a renewed USD rally is not that high. The consolidation range noted above really refers to the developing (and, at this stage, ‘potential’ only) bull wedge on the daily chart."
"The USD has worked off a lot of the short-term overbought status that had accumulated through April and last week’s inside range week suggests that downside impetus has weakened. Pressure is building for a break out of the range, one-way or the other. A topside break out is favoured by the shape of the formation and the broader trend higher in USD/CAD."
"The range ceiling at 1.0901 on the daily chart is not that far away, though we rather think that markets will look for a push through the mid-month high at 1.0925 as the cue to add or rebuild longs. Support is 1.0855 and 1.0818."