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16 Apr 2013

Forex Flash: Slowing demand for US assets - Nomura

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura strategists note that both equity and fixed income flows into the US weakened.

They see that foreign demand for US equity securities slowed in February, even after adjusting for the Caribbean, and flows from the Eurozone turned negative. They write, “While credit flows made up for this to some degree, the flow picture seems to have started to turn for USD, going into the recent trend of weakening economic data. Fixed income flows slowed as well, led by official investors and notably China where intervention for the quarter seems to have been somewhat front-loaded in Q1.”
Apr 16, 2013

Forex Flash: EUR/USD expected to fail at 1.3150 – Commerzbank

The EUR/USD continues to be expected to fail at 1.3150, an interim peak (Elliott wave count and TD perfection set-up), “and we look for the resumption of the down move”. Commerzbank are, however, unable to rule out another retest of the 1.3150/1.3225 zone prior to the swing lower. “We suspect loss of the 12th April low at 1.5036 should be enough to de-stabilize the chart near term. Intraday the market should then find initial support circa 1.2995/47 and the 200 day ma at 1.2917 en route to the 1.2740 recent low”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, pointing to key support at 1.2679/61 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-to-January rise and the November 2012 low) and longer term target at 1.2400 and then 1.2042, the 2012 low.
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Apr 16, 2013

Forex Flash: Growing chance of a rate cut at next RBA meeting – TD Securities

This month’s RBA Board meeting minutes refreshed mixed news on offshore (US and China ok, risks from Europe) and domestic activity (retail and house prices up, challenges from strong AUD). “The OIS strip: is pricing a 25% chance of a -25bp rate cut at the next meeting (was 10% chance a month ago) reflecting the emergence of global growth concerns as both the US and China have stumbled in recent weeks”, wrote analyst Annette Beacher, adding that the bill strip is pricing more than one -25bp rate cut by the end of the year (-34bp) “having all but given up only two weeks ago when the more bullish analysts were garnering airplay for a RBA rate hike by year end”.
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