Markets: What is most important in the week ahead? – Nordea Markets
Analysts at Nordea Markets lists down the key economic events and releases from across the globe, which are going to have significant impact on the markets.
Key Quotes
“German and Euro-area industrial production figures have been weak recently and have been undershooting levels implied from sentiment indicators such as Germany’s Ifo index. It may thus be that industrial production numbers can bounce although a distinct improvement has yet to be seen in manufacturing sentiment. The German industrial production data for January is due on 11 March (we expect another weak number – in contrast to the consensus view). The Euro-area figure is due on 13 March.”
“US retails sales data is due on 11 March. Retail sales disappointed significantly in December and the consensus is looking for a bounce in January. Year-to-date equity market strength suggests as much, although other indicators (eg Redbook and SpendTrend) suggest that if retail sales bounce, they will still have weakened later in the first quarter.”
“Durable goods orders data for January is scheduled for a release on 13 March. Here we will watch out for negative spill-overs from earlier Chinese developments, and while we do see some light at the end of the tunnel as noted above, significant weakness in such so-called hard data may be in the pipeline. We suspect hard data will be weaker than generally anticipated.”
“The above point also holds for China. Chinese retail sales and industrial production numbers for February are due on 14 March. Even if the data continues to deteriorate, it may be that the shift as signalled by the Chinese authorities may limit the impact on markets. China’s Xi Jinping signalled a desire to support the economy rather than to “control risk” in late February, and the year-to-date ~25% surge in the Shanghai Composite signals better sentiment – and hence other data - down the road.”
“In politics, news on China/US trade will receive plenty of attention in the coming week, as will the ongoing Brexit situation. In the US, Mueller’s report on Russia’s role in the 2016 election remains highly anticipated, as has been the case since last spring. There are many who hope that this report will pave the way for an impeachment of the US President before his term ends in 2020.”