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12 Feb 2019

US Dollar Index appears sidelined around 97.00

  • The index manages to keep the trade at/above the 97.00 handle.
  • Yields of the US 10-year note test highs around 2.68%.
  • JOLTs Job Openings, Chief Powell next on tap.

Tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), the greenback has now receded from YTD tops in the 97.10/15 band but manages well to keep the trade around the 97.00 mark for the time being.

US Dollar Index looks to data, Powell

After 8 consecutive sessions with gains, the rally in the buck is now taking a small break, easing from recent yearly highs beyond 97.10 although trading within a narrow range.

The deteriorated sentiment in the risk-associated universe in combination with rising uncertainty over the progress of the US-China trade talks have been fuelling the strong rebound in the greenback from the 95.00 neighbourhood recorded back in late January.

In the US calendar, JOLTs Job Openings is due along with the speech by Fed’s J.Powell and the weekly report on US crude oil supplies by the API.

What to look for around USD

US-China trade talks are set to resume later in the week, although no major announcement is expected before the 90-day truce expires on March 1. In this regard, any positive outcome or even an extension of the current truce would be positive for the risk sentiment and carries the potential to dent the buck’s rally. On another direction, weakness in overseas economies (vs. solid US fundamentals) plus G10 central banks apparently entering a ‘wait-and-see’ mode have been sustaining the upbeat momentum in the greenback as of late, while there is still a high degree of scepticism regarding the likeliness that the Fed’s tightening cycle could end any time soon.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.01% at 97.06 and a breakout of 97.12 (2019 high Feb.11) would aim for 97.71 (2018 high Dec.14) and finally 97.87 (monthly high Jun.20 2017 ). On the flip side, immediate contention is located at 96.79 (23.6% Fibo of the September-December up move) followed by 96.42 (55-day SMA) and then 96.16 (21-day SMA).

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