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7 Feb 2019

Gold: Bulls on the defensive and target space back into the rising channel at $1,314

  • Gold has been on the defensive but has so far held on to the 1,300 handle.
  • However, Sino/US trade headlines sent a bid into the safe haven and bulls target the rising channel support line and 23.6% fibo upside target.

Gold prices turned south since topping out at the recent highs of $1,326.30 as markets priced in optimism over Sino/US trade. 

White House Adviser Larry Kudlow said in an interview with Fox Business Network that a "sizable distance" remains between the U.S. and China in protracted trade negotiations. The news followed CNBC reporting, citing sources, that it is highly unlikely that a meeting betweenTrump and Chinese President Xi Jinping before the March 1 deadline for tariffs to increase on Chinese goods will take place. 

Gold up 4.5% on Kudlow

Kudlow explained that previous talks covered "a tremendous amount of ground" but said enforcement would be very important, as well as technological and structural issues. This is of no news to investors, anticipating a bumpy road ahead, although the double whammy of news has dented a fragile risk-on bid in the market sending the benchmarks on Wal Street into a sea of red, the VIX on a spike and gold prices 4.5% higher at the time of writing. 

Gold levels

Gold is on the defensive but has so far held on to the 1,300 handle. However, recent sentiment has driven a flight to safety across the board which has put in a bid in gold that has otherwise been on course for a break of 1,300,  guarding the 1297 9th Jan highs, and then a test of the 23.6% Fibo retracement down at 1,287 comes into play. A break of the fractal low down at 1276 will confirm a change of flow with a target down to the area that has the round 1,250 fractal old resistance and the 161.8% fibo target located at 1,245. To the upside, bulls need to get back into the rising channel at the 23.6% Fibo of the 23rd Jan supporting fractal at 1276 to recent highs of 1326  at 1314. such a move will open 1320 and target R3 at 1323. 

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