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6 Feb 2019

AUDJPY: A reality check on the risk rebound - TD Securities

"Dovish pivots by the Fed and other CBs combined with hopes an end to the US-China trade tensions have contributed to the return of confidence," note TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

"The bounce now looks tired, however. Momentum has eased just ahead of the 200dma and near the key 61.8% Fibo level; the daily RSI is also approaching 'overbought' levels. This leaves the spectrum of risky assets vulnerable to correction if the latest bullish consensus is challenged for any reason."

"FX investors looking to fade the prevailing risk-on consensus could look to short-dated AUDJPY downside structures to position for a potential pullback in confidence. Historically, AUDJPY has the highest correlation to the S&P among G10 crosses."

"The RBA's dovish capitulation this week highlights renewed downside risks for AUD in general while we retain a broadly-bullish JPY outlook overall. Vol remains subdued while risk-reversals also suggest favorable levels to enter downside."

Feb 6, 2019

Gold continues to fluctuate in narrow band above $1310

The XAU/USD pair was able to post moderate gains on Tuesday but failed to push higher today as the broad-based USD strength didn't allow the pair to p
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Feb 6, 2019

Oil Technical Analysis: WTI bulls lift the market to daily highs above $54.00 a barrel

Oil daily chart Crude oil WTI is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average. Oil 4-hour chart Crude oil is trading ab
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