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6 Feb 2019

USD/RUB firmer post-CPI, still below 66.00

  • The pair is prolonging the up move to the vicinity of 66.00.
  • Russian CPI came in below expectations in January.
  • The CBR is expected to refrain from moving on rates on Friday.

The persistent depreciation in the Russian currency is helping USD/RUB to clinch fresh multi-day peaks in the 65.80 region.

USD/RUB looks to oil, data, CBR

The ongoing correction lower in prices of the barrel of the Brent crude has been weighing on RUB in past sessions and thus collaborating with the up move in spot to multi-day highs.

In addition today’s release of inflation figures in the Russian economy showed consumer prices rose at a monthly 1.0% in January and 5.0% from a year earlier, both readings coming in below market consensus.

Later in the week, RUB should remain under scrutiny in light of Friday’s CBR event, where the central bank is expected to leave key rates unchanged. Still in the Russian docket, the central bank will publish its usual weekly figures of held FX reserves (Thursday) and Quarterly GDP figures (Friday).

In the US calendar, the trade deficit shruk to $49.3 billion in November from 455.7 billion and Non-farm Productivity is expected to come in flat inter-quarter in the October-December period.

USD/RUB levels to watch

At the moment the pair is gaining 0.23% at 65.79 and a breakout of 65.85 (high Feb.6) would aim for 66.04 (200-day SMA) and then 66.69 (high Jan.25). On the flip side, the immediate support is located at 65.16 (2019 low Jan.31) seconded by 64.95 (monthly low Oct.24 2018) and finally 64.90 (monthly low Nov.22 2018).

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