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4 Feb 2019

EUR/USD on the defensive near 1.1440 ahead of EMU data

  • The pair starts the week on the negative ground near 1.1440.
  • The greenback is flirting with session peaks around 95.70.
  • EMU Producer Prices, Sentix index next on tap.

The European currency has started the week on a negative note and is now forcing EUR/USD to recede to the 1.1440 region, home of the 100-day SMA.

EUR/USD now focused on data

Spot appears to be consolidating in the lower bound of the recent range, with the key 100-day SMA providing strong support for the time being.

In the meantime, market participants continue to digest the recent publication of the monthly report on the US labour market, where the economy added more jobs than initially estimated in January (304K), although inflation pressure via wages eased somewhat.

Looking ahead in Euroland, Investor Confidence tracked by the Sentix index is next on tap seconded by Producer Prices for the month of December. Across the pond, November’s Factory Orders will be the only release of note.

What to look for around EUR/USD

The extent and duration of the slowdown in Euroland continues to be in centre stage following recent figures from Q4 GDP, while higher-than-expected advanced CPI figures in January appear to have sparked some optimism among investors. On the political side, the upcoming EU parliamentary elections (May) should start to gather extra interest, always with a close eye on the potential advance of populists views among members.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.11% at 1.1441 and a break below 1.1425 (21-day SMA) would target 1.1412 (10-day SMA) en route to 1.1406 (low Jan.30). On the other hand, the next hurdle emerges at 1.1514 (high Jan.31) seconded by 1.1515 (50% Fibo of the September-November drop) and finally 1.1569 (2019 high Jan.9).

Feb 4, 2019

FX option expiries for Feb 4 NY cut

FX option expiries for Feb 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1300 515m 1.1450 713m 1.1465 1.3
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Feb 4, 2019

USD/JPY climbs to over 1-week tops, 110.00 mark back on sight

   •  The USD remains supported by Friday’s stellar NFP print/upbeat US ISM PMI.    •  Improving risk-sentiment dent JPY’s safe-haven demand and rema
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