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19 Nov 2018

USD/JPY dragging its feet just south of 113.00

  • Eearly-market action is twisting on hung risk sentiment despite positive Japan trade readings.
  • Tuesday remains the more interesting day with the BoJ's latest SoMP on the docket.

The USD/JPY is trading into 112.75 in the new week's early action which saw the Dollar-Yen dip into a fresh two-week low before recovering quickly to familiar levels that ended trading last Friday.

Japan's annualized Exports and Imports both improved for October, with the former clocking in at 8.2% (previous -1.3%), with the latter clipping into 19.9% versus the previous period's 7% showing, but the mid-tier bullish trade data showing is only keeping the USD/JPY chained in place as early-market investors await a spark in the chamber in either direction.

Monday is a thin start for the Yen's trading week, with a speech from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Governor Kuroda dropping at 03:30 GMT, but traders will largely be keeping an eye out for the BoJ's latest Monetary Policy Statement, due early Tuesday, and investors will be looking for murmurs of increasing divergence within the Japanese central bank's leading ranks, with a slim-yet-growing number of dissenters of the BoJ's hyper-easy policy becoming more vocal in their questioning of the efficacy of Japan's unprecedented easing strategy.

USD/JPY Levels to watch

Losing the 113.00 handle late last week was a strong bearish signal according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "the pair closed below the 113.00 level and is technically poised to extend its decline, despite not yet in a bearish market. The daily chart shows that technical indicators turned south, maintaining strong downward vertical slopes, the Momentum still above its mid-line but the RSI already at 46. In the same chart, the 100 DMA maintains a mild bullish slope, currently at 112.00, providing a strong dynamic support that if broken, will anticipate a steeper decline. In the 4 hours chart, the bearish case is stronger, as the pair finished below all of its moving averages, while technical indicators stand at fresh monthly lows, the Momentum extending its decline and the RSI partially losing its downward strength at around 30. The immediate support is 112.60, a strong static level and where the pair bottomed Friday."

Support levels: 112.60 112.25 112.00

Resistance levels: 113.00 113.45 113.80

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