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26 Jul 2018

AUD/USD: surpressed by the 50-D SMA, trade talk and investors await US GDP

  • AUD has been the weakest currency in recent trade.
  • Markets are getting set for the GDP data on Friday.

AUD has been the weakest currency in recent trade but is now consolidating vs the greenback below the 200-hr SMA at 0.7399 as the dollar picks up a bid and commodities fall away, (copper's recovery capped), and the yuan drops back. 

Despite some disappointing data releases n the US session, the dollar has picked up a bid between the range of 94.0840-94.7270 due to the back and forth on global trade.  Bloomberg reported earlier that China will retaliate to the Trump's administration with a plan to respond to any such measures, whether they are $16B or $200B. 

However, markets are getting set for the GDP data on Friday, and ahead of the event, we had the Atlanta Fed GDPNow coming in at 3.8%, down from 4.5% for 2Q growth. The consensus for tomorrow's data is for 4.2% growth - there had been some chatter that Trump reportedly told an associate it will be slightly higher. However, the central bank theme continues to underpin the dollar and the longer-term bear trend is likely to resume solely on the back of the RBA & Fed rate paths in divergence. 

AUD and the terms of trade

Meanwhile, there was an unexpected broad-based leap in hard and soft commodity export prices which analysts at TD Securities explained was encouraging for trade and economic growth. "Even if the terms of trade fell -1%/q, the annual pace jumps to 2.5%/y given favourable base effects. For the AUD, the terms of trade is a medium-term driver of the exchange rate, and closely followed by the RBA. Our commodity price & 2y rates differential fair value model is $US0.752, with commodity prices currently providing the upside."

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD is consolidating below the 50-D SMA and supported just below the 21-D SMA. RSIs are neutral.  On a break of the 50-D SMA, eyes will turn to the 200-DMA and June highs which is a possibility so long as the barrier support remains intact down at 0.73 the figure. However, there is still the risk of a complete unwind of the two-year year-long reflation trade and the 0.72 handle would then be at risk. Below there comes the 0.7110/70 support zone. 

Jul 26, 2018

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Jul 26, 2018

BoE policy decision preview, Aug (Thurs 2 Aug) - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates for a second time this cycle by 25bp.  Key Quotes: "This is supported by the d
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