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26 Jul 2018

US: Near term data flow should maintain the impression of growth leadership - Westpac

Richard Franulovich, Head of FX Strategy at Westpac, points out that broad swathe of US housing data now underperforming, from starts to permits, and new and existing sales; rising rates and less favorable tax treatment for home ownership likely culprits.

Key Quotes

“Yet despite that, near term data flow should maintain the impression of US growth leadership; advance Q2 GDP (Jul 27) likely prints 4%+, regional PMIs point to another solid ISM (Aug 1 & 3), while initial claims and surveys point to another +200k jobs gain.”

“Against that, some USD negatives are percolating; underlying trade tensions persist but a notable conciliatory tone is apparent in both EU-US and resuming NAFTA talks. Targeted monetary and fiscal easing by Chinese policymakers appear to have buoyed hopes that policy is now underwriting growth there too.”

“The USD could see a modest retracement but should maintain the bulk of H1 gains. Bigger risks could materialise in late 2018 – as congress flips to probable Democrat rule, the Fed potentially rethinks the pace of hikes as policy approaches neutral and the tax cut boost to growth peaks.”

 

Jul 26, 2018

ECB: No fireworks, statement Unchanged - TDS

Today's 12:45pm BST ECB statement was unchanged from June, as had been fully expected, as the ECB retained the key language on the path of QE, the pla
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Jul 26, 2018

United States Initial Jobless Claims above expectations (215K) in July 20: Actual (217K)

United States Initial Jobless Claims above expectations (215K) in July 20: Actual (217K)
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