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25 Jun 2018

When are the German IFO surveys and how they could affect EUR/USD?

The German IFO Business Climate Overview

The German IFO surveys for June are lined up for release later today at 0800 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to come in a tad weaker at 101.7 in June. The Current Assessment sub-index is also seen lower at 105.6 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to drop to 98.0 in the reported month.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

 How could affect EUR/USD?

The spot could drop back below the 1.1600 levels on a bigger-than-expected drop in IFO figures while the EUR/USD pair could reverse towards the 1.17 handle on an upside surprise.

According to Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet, “It would be prudent to wait for a follow-through up-move beyond the mentioned barrier before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move beyond the 1.1700 handle towards 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near the 1.1720 region. On the flip side, the 1.1640-30 region might continue to act as an immediate support and is followed by the 1.1600 handle. A sustained weakness back below the mentioned support might negate prospects for any further recovery and turn the pair vulnerable to slide back below the 1.1540 horizontal support towards challenging the key 1.1500 psychological mark.”

Key Notes

Germany: IFO expectations for June to drop to 96.8 - Nomura

German IFO and US new home sales in focus – TDS

European FX Outlook:  German business climate set to decelerate further as trade war saga continues

About the German IFO Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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