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30 Apr 2018

EUR/USD treading water around 1.2130 ahead of German CPI

-The pair is looking to consolidate in the upper end of the range.

- Market focus has now shifted to the 1.20 region, where sits the 200-day sma.

- German advanced inflation figures next on tap.

After testing the mid-1.2000s on Friday, EUR/USD managed to regain some attention and is now navigating the 1.2130/40 area ahead of the opening bell in Euroland.

EUR/USD focused on German data

The pair has started the week on a firm note amidst marginal activity due to the holidays in China and Japan and with the greenback alternating gains with losses so far.

In the meantime, market participants continue to digest the recent sharp sell off to the 1.2050 region, levels last seen in mid-January, following a strong pick up in the sentiment around the buck.

A steady/cautious ECB at its meeting on Thursday, some poor data releases in the euro area as of late and investors’ shift to monetary policy have left EUR extremely vulnerable, opening the door for a potential test of the 1.20 neighbourhood, where lies the critical 200-day sma.

News from the speculative community noted EUR speculative net longs retreated to the lowest level since February 20 during the week ended on April 24, according to the latest CFTC report.

On the data front, German flash inflation figures for the month of April will be the salient event in the euro bloc. Across the Atlantic, US inflation figures tracked by the PCE, Personal Income/Spending, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales are all due later in the NA session.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is up 0.05% at 1.2137 facing the next resistance at 1.2210 (high Apr.26) seconded by 1.2235 (10-day sma) en route to 1.2276 (21-day sma). On the downside, a breakdown of 1.2050 (low Apr.27) would target 1.2013 (200-day sma) and then 1.1916 (2018 low Jan.19).

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