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Canada: Robust economic conditions - Westpac

The BoC’s business outlook survey confirms robust conditions of Canadian markets despite global trade/NAFTA tensions, explains Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“Continued solid jobs gains in March and upside surprises on the BoC’s Feb core inflation measures all nudge the odds of a BoC hike higher, and possibly as soon as next week. Yet markets appear to be notably underprepared – OIS pricing giving a very skinny 16% probability for a hike.”

“Market pricing for their subsequent 30 May meeting looks light too, at 40% probability. The most likely scenario is for the BoC to be on hold, though a hike would not surprise.”

“USD/CAD has now retraced almost 2/3 of the sharp Feb/Mar bounce. Near term momentum, supported by positive energy price trends, should see USD/CAD testing its Jan 2018 1.23 lows.”

EUR/USD tumbles to lows near 1.2300

The greenback keeps the upside momentum intact so far today and relegates EUR/USD to give away further gains and test lows in the 1.2310 region. EUR/
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USD/CAD outlook remains bearish short term – Scotiabank

In view of FX Strategists at Scotiabank, the pair’s stance remains bearish in the near term. Key Quotes “USDCAD consolidated overnight but USD gains
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