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26 Mar 2018

USD/JPY bulls now looking to build on recovery beyond 105.00 handle

   •  China’s efforts to seek trade solutions ease trade-war fears.
   •  JPY weighed down by a slight improvement in risk appetite. 
   •  Subdued USD demand now seems to cap additional gains.

The USD/JPY pair staged a goodish rebound from a 16-month low and is now looking to build on its momentum back above the key 105.00 psychological mark. 

The pair gained some positive traction at the start of a new trading week and has now managed to snap three consecutive days of losing streak amid easing fears of a full-blown trade war, following China's efforts to seek trade solutions with the US.

Meanwhile, a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, coupled with a slight improvement in risk appetite, which tends to weigh on the Japanese Yen's safe-haven appeal, further collaborated to the pair's goodish recovery. 

However, a subdued US Dollar price-action did little to provide any additional boost and might now keep a lid on any further up-move. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying interest before confirming that the pair might have bottomed out in the near-term. 

In absence of any major market moving economic releases, broader market risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics might continue to act as key determinants of the pair's momentum ahead of speeches by influential FOMC member, later during the NY session. 

Technical levels to watch

Immediate resistance is pegged near the 105.25-30 region, above which a fresh bout of short-covering now seems to lift the pair back towards reclaiming the 106.00 handle. On the flip side, 104.65-60 area now seems to have emerged as an immediate support, which if broken might continue dragging the pair further towards testing the 104.00 handle.
 

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