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26 Mar 2018

EUR/USD bid around 1.2370/80, focus on risk trends

  • The pair is extending the upside and trades closer to 1.2400.
  • USD stays offered with DXY challenging lows in the key 89.40 region.
  • US/China effervescence post-tariffs poised to drive sentiment.

The buying interest around the single currency remains well and sound so far on Monday and is now lifting EUR/USD to test the area of daily highs in the 1.2370/80 band.

EUR/USD attention to risk appetite

The index is advancing for the second session in a row so far today and continues to erode the critical resistance line off YTD tops around 1.2370. Looking at the broader picture, however, spot remains sidelined between 1.2155 and 1.2555.

The recently announced tariffs on US imports from China and the so far small retaliation from the Asian economy appear poised to rule the sentiment among traders ahead in the week, with the main focus on the impact on risk appetite trends.

On the positioning front, EUR speculative net longs receced to the lowest level since February 20 during the week ended on March 20, according to the latest CFTC report.

Nothing in the EU/US docket today, whereas ECB’s J.Weidmann, E.Nowotny and D.Nouy will hold speeches during the morning in the Old Continent. Across the pond, R.Quarles, NY Fed W.Dudley (permanent voter, centrist) and Cleveland Fed L.Mester (voter, hawkish) are also due to speak

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.09% at 1.2363 and a break above 1.2389 (high Mar.22) would aim for 1.2414 (high Mar.14) and then 1.2448 (high Mar.8). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 1.2241 (low Mar.21) seconded by 1.2206 (low Feb.9) and finally 1.2165 (low Jan.18).

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