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19 Mar 2014

Flash: Adding Long USDJPY into FOMC - Nomura

FXStreet (Bali) - Nomura Market Research Team looks to add longs USD/JPY spot exposure ahead of the FOMC, saying that US weaker data is now priced in to some degree and the risk-reward for USD
may be skewed towards USD gains going into this week's FOMC.

Key Quotes

"We are not ready to get back into long USD trades on a broad basis, but we continue to hold the view that USDJPY is finding a bottom. We expressed this view on 4 March by buying 100 no-touch options structures."

"At this point, we look to add long USDJPY spot exposure (current: 101.75) of $10m in our model portfolio, setting a stop at 100.00."

"The risk to this view is a further escalation of tensions around Ukraine, and we will look to President Putin‟s speech on Tuesday morning for clues about further steps in the conflict."

"However, our central case is that a dramatic escalation, involving outright military confrontation, and/or much more severe sanctions will be averted for the time being and we want to be involved in long USDJPY going into FOMC."
Mar 19, 2014

Japan's trade deficit worsens again

Japan's Merchandise Trade Balance for the month of February came at -800.3B vs ¥-590B expected and ¥-2,790B last, while Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance was -1133.2bn vs ¥-890.0B expected an ¥-1,818.8B last. Exports (YoY) for February came at +9.8% vs +12.4% expected and +9.5% last, with imports (YoY) at +9% vs +7.4% expected and +25.0% last.
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Mar 19, 2014

USD/JPY levelling out on support 101.40

USD/JPY is resting up on 101.40 currently, which has been the play for the main part of sessions overnight. Overall however, the price action around Yen has been of some surprise to the downside given the slightly better risk on mood in overnight markets with Putin saying he doesn’t intend to split up Ukraine.
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