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7 Mar 2018

EUR/USD eases from tops, testing 1.2400

  • The pair clinched tops near 1.2430 earlier in the session.
  • Risk-off back to the fore after Cohn’s resignation on Tuesday.
  • US ADP report and Fed’s Beige Book on top of the agenda later today.

EUR/USD is now struggling for direction in the 1.2400 neighbourhood, coming down from tops in the proximity of 1.2430 recorded earlier in the day.

EUR/USD eyes on risk trends, US docket

The pair is looking to extend the so far 4-day positive streak on Wednesday, always against the backdrop of a renewed and quite strong selling bias around the buck.

In fact, yesterday’s resignation of the White House economic adviser G.Cohn has re-ignited fears of potential global trade wars, sparking a wave of risk-off sentiment and hurting the buck at the same.

In the meantime, the pair seems to have met strong resistance around 1.2430 - coincident with the near term resistance line off YTD lows seen on January 9 – and is now challenging the key 1.2400 handle.

Ahead in the week, the ECB meeting will be the salient event in the EUR-space, while the greenback should be in centre stage later today in light of the publication of the ADP report, Trade Balance figures for the month of January and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book.

In addition, markets will closely follow the speech by Atlanta Fed Raphael Bostic (voter, centrist) on economic outlook.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.14% at 1.2408 and a break above 1.2433 (high Mar.7) would target 1.2537 (high Jan.25) en route to 1.2557 (2018 high Feb.18). On the downside, immediate contention emerges at 1.2313 (10-day sma) followed by 1.2272 (low Mar.1) and finally 1.2206 (low Feb.9).

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