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27 Feb 2018

USD/JPY flirts with 107.00 handle, risk reversals shed JPY call bias

  • Risk reversals show demand for JPY calls (bullish bets) is falling.
  • Eyes Powell testimony

The USD/JPY pair's recovery from 106.38 yesterday has left a higher low on the daily chart, indicating a short-term bottom has been made at 105.55 (Feb. 16 low).

Further, the one-month 25 delta risk reversals (JPY1MRR) gauge indicates falling demand for JPY calls (buy Yen). As of writing, the risk reversals are being paid at 1.4 JPY calls vs. 2.4 JPY calls seen on Feb. 12. The drop in the JPY volatility premium (from 2.4 to 1.4) indicates JPY bullish bias has weakened.

The technical setup and the activity in the options market clearly indicate the investors believe the new Fed chair Jerome Powell will remain measured in his first testimony (due later today). 

USD/JPY Technical Levels

A convincing move above 107.09 (100-hour MA) would open up upside towards 107.91 (Feb. 21 high + descending trendline drawn from the Jan. 8 high and Feb. 2 high). A violation there would expose 108.28 (Jan. 26 low).

On the downside, breach of support at 106.38 (Feb. 26 low) could yield a sell-off to 106.03 (Feb. 15 low) and105.55 (recent low).

 

Feb 27, 2018

AUDNZD climbs following disappointing NZ trade figures, 1.08 eyed

AUD/NZD has lifted in the Asia session, trying to capture further ground and currently trading just above 1.0770. The Aussie is gaining following a m
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Feb 27, 2018

IMF maintains January forecast of 3.9 pct global growth for 2018 and 2019

Comments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) head Christine Lagarde are crossing the wires via Reuters- IMG maintains January forecast of 3.
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