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26 Feb 2018

USD/CAD refreshes session tops, back above mid-1.2600s

   •  A modest USD rebound helps regain traction.
   •  Weaker oil prices provide an additional boost.
   •  US data/Fedspeak eyed for fresh impetus.

The USD/CAD pair reversed an early dip back closer to Friday's Canadian CPI-led swing lows and has now jumped to the top end of its daily trading range.

A modest US Dollar rebound, despite weaker US Treasury bond yields, once again helped the pair to attract some buying interest ahead of the 1.2600 handle. Also collaborating to the pair's goodish up-move of around 35-pips from session lows was softer tone around oil markets, which tends to weigh on the commodity-linked currency - Loonie.

Currently trading around the 1.2660-65 region, the pair has now recovered a part of Friday's steep decline, triggered following the release of hotter-than-expected Canadian consumer inflation figures, and traders now look forward to the release of new home sales data from the US for some fresh impetus.

Apart from the second-tier US housing market data, a scheduled speech by the Fed Governor Randal Quarles would also be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities ahead of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's first congressional testimony on Tuesday. 

Technical levels to watch

A follow-through buying interest could lift the pair towards reclaiming the 1.2700 handle, also coinciding with the very important 200-day SMA, above which the bullish momentum is likely to get extended towards YTD tops resistance near the 1.2755 region.

On the flip side, the 1.2630-25 region (100-day SMA) now seems to act as immediate support, which if broken might would turn the pair vulnerable to break below the 1.2600 handle and head towards testing 50-day SMA support near the 1.2540 region.
 

Feb 26, 2018

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Feb 26, 2018

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